22 March 2014 ~ Weekend Chart Review

Just a couple of interesting charts I’ve got my eye on…

Up or Down, This time?

Up or Down, This time?

Can China drag the Aussie dollar down?

Can China drag the Aussie dollar down?


20 March 2014 ~ US Claims ~ US Phili Fed

Thursday suffered some considerable selling across the board in a continued reaction to the more Hawkish stance from Yellen the night before.

Of note:
12:30 noon London Time: US Claims released without any surprises, and negligible market impact.

14:00 London Time: US Philadelphia Fed hits 9.0 as against expectation of 3.0
Markets jerk a little but still register as a 1/10 on the Harry Hindsight Impact Meter.
* Several minutes later US equities had risen several points but I question whether this was a direct result of the Phili Fed number. More likely general sentiment.

19 March 2014 ~ FOMC Statement ~ Yellen is Hawkish

Sadly I lost audio feed ahead of the Fed Statement at 6pm London Time.
Nevertheless, I provide the video footage for several minutes, during which the market’s did move considerably.
5/10 on the Harry Hindsight Impact Meter.
* Fed sees first rate rise in 2015, drops 6.5% jobless threshold.
* Fed cuts monthly Treasury purchases by $5bn, and MBS by $5bn; generally expected.
The water turns pretty much red for a good hour thereafter.

…And an hour later, 7pm London Time, the Fed’s Yellen is answering questions and comes across as more Hawkish than the market bargained for. Further selling ensues…

18 March 2014 ~ German ZEW ~ Putin eases fears

Due to a rare holiday break, I was unable to give my usual level of attention to the markets this week. But here’s what I managed to pick up on:

10am London Time, Germany releases ZEW score, coming in at 46.6 as against expectation of 52.0
Harry Hindsight Impact Rating of 3/10 – and that’s being generous.

11:38am London Time saw equities gradually rallying, seemingly in response to a concurrent Putin speech in which he sounded less aggressive than perhaps the market had feared.
There was no specific line in his speech to pin the modest moves on.
Perhaps a 2.5/10 on the Harry Hindsight Impact Meter.

12:30am London time US CPI came out in line with expectations – the markets barely shrugged at all.
1/10 on the Harry Hindsight Impact Meter.

18 March 2014 ~ What’s so special about Tuesday?

I won’t be in a position to update the Harry Hindsight Highlight Reel this week, although will continue to record my screen and hopefully catch up over the weekend.

Suffice it to say, from what I’ve seen Russian President Putin did provide some flurry of excitement on the markets today.

In the meantime, I’ve been taking a closer look at the S&P 500. As Zero Hedge blog discussed in the past, there is a peculiar tendency for the S&P to rally on Tuesday. I’ve crunched through some of the numbers today – it is a very interesting phenomenon and I wonder whether it has something to do with human nature, or simply pure random chance?

I will be fascinated to investigate further, whether such phenomenon exists on the 30 minute charts.

Broken down by day

Broken down by day

17 March 2014 ~ Just another quiet Monday

Sadly, I found nothing to justify a video update today. A few bits and pieces released during the session regarding Russia (of little or no consequence) and a handful of lower tier data releases was about as exciting as it got. Check back tomorrow.

In the meantime, I’ll take the opportunity to review a few charts for my own amusement…

I periodically like to remind myself of the apparent madness of Retail (bedroom) traders:

Retailers have it wrong again!

Retailers have it wrong again!

Is now a good time to buy FTSE 100 futures?

Is now a good time to pull the trigger?

Is now a good time to pull the trigger?

Or are the equity markets starting to run out of steam at long last?

Are we nearing the end of this incredible bull market?

Are we nearing the end of this incredible bull market?

WEEKEND REVIEW ~ 15 March 2014 ~ Harry Hingsight Play Of The Week

I think the award of “Best Play” has to go to Mario Draghi, whose statement on Thurdsay, 13 March, provided a potentially lucrative sell on EUR/USD (6E Futures).
Let’s take another look:

In an age of Machine-readable news, sometimes you have to be prepared to hit the trade button the very instant you see the market jerking in to life, and the Squawk Box microphone clicking on. Waiting to hear the full headline often means you are too late already.