18 April 2014 ~ Taking Stock Of Recent News Plays

Despite recording all the action from the week, there were no specific harry hindsight news plays that I felt warranted a video clip.
As the blog has progressed, I have become more selective about what qualifies as a potential “free money trade”. There have been a handful of key moments over the last several weeks; I’d like to review the biggest of them on a 60 minute chart, to really put them in context.

What I found quite surprising was the lack of higher time-frame “follow-through” in each instance of news. Draghi or Yellen might say something important and dictate the market direction over the following couple of hours, but the very next day – or soon enough anyway – the market retraces the whole move. It makes me wonder just how significant news is in the grand scheme of things?…

S&P500, looking at key news events of the last several weeks.

S&P500, looking at key news events of the last several weeks.

EUR:USD, looking at key news events of the last several weeks.

EUR:USD, looking at key news events of the last several weeks.

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18 March 2014 ~ What’s so special about Tuesday?

I won’t be in a position to update the Harry Hindsight Highlight Reel this week, although will continue to record my screen and hopefully catch up over the weekend.

Suffice it to say, from what I’ve seen Russian President Putin did provide some flurry of excitement on the markets today.

In the meantime, I’ve been taking a closer look at the S&P 500. As Zero Hedge blog discussed in the past, there is a peculiar tendency for the S&P to rally on Tuesday. I’ve crunched through some of the numbers today – it is a very interesting phenomenon and I wonder whether it has something to do with human nature, or simply pure random chance?

I will be fascinated to investigate further, whether such phenomenon exists on the 30 minute charts.

Broken down by day

Broken down by day

17 March 2014 ~ Just another quiet Monday

Sadly, I found nothing to justify a video update today. A few bits and pieces released during the session regarding Russia (of little or no consequence) and a handful of lower tier data releases was about as exciting as it got. Check back tomorrow.

In the meantime, I’ll take the opportunity to review a few charts for my own amusement…

I periodically like to remind myself of the apparent madness of Retail (bedroom) traders:

Retailers have it wrong again!

Retailers have it wrong again!

Is now a good time to buy FTSE 100 futures?

Is now a good time to pull the trigger?

Is now a good time to pull the trigger?

Or are the equity markets starting to run out of steam at long last?

Are we nearing the end of this incredible bull market?

Are we nearing the end of this incredible bull market?

12 MARCH 2014 ~ A Quiet Day

It was a disappointingly quiet day. It didn’t warrant any video highlights – not even any “gimmie’s” available from important scheduled data releases, of which there were none.
Was there any news? Sure, and it included immaterial comments from Central Bankers, stirrings from Crimea, trouble in Gaza, and perhaps most unusually, an exploding building in New York (non-terror related).
I have no doubt plenty of market players took positions on the back of some of these news items – but on the Hindsight-Impact scale, I’m calling the lot of them 0/10. When something grips the market, there’s no doubt about it: the price ladders really start to move, the Squawk Box boys & girls start to shout down the microphone, and you can be sure Prop Traders across London are sprinting back to their keyboards.

It seems like a fair opportunity to post my Technical Analysis Chart Of The Day. I like to keep it simple – trending markets, 50% retracements, 200-day Moving Averages – just the obvious stuff.
AUD/USD (6A) caught my eye, and here’s why…

6A is hitting possible resistance at the SMA200

6A is hitting possible resistance at the SMA200