Thursday suffered some considerable selling across the board in a continued reaction to the more Hawkish stance from Yellen the night before.
12:30 noon London Time: US Claims released without any surprises, and negligible market impact.
14:00 London Time: US Philadelphia Fed hits 9.0 as against expectation of 3.0
Markets jerk a little but still register as a 1/10 on the Harry Hindsight Impact Meter.
* Several minutes later US equities had risen several points but I question whether this was a direct result of the Phili Fed number. More likely general sentiment.
There was very little news to excite the EU session traders this morning, with not even the publication of a Think-Tank Report to generate interest!
But things certainly started to heat up as we approached the US opening bell:
* The key pieces of scheduled data for the day, US Advance Retail Sales & US Initial Jobless Claims came in close to expectations – although I did notice a serious exchange of contracts on the US Treasuries, with sellers seeming the slightly more urgent.
* Around 13:30 London time, Goldmans and Barclays reduce their US Q1 GDP expectations, and the US Treasury market started to churn higher and higher alongside FGBL, while ES and FESX conversely started to melt. Was this a reaction to Goldmans analysis? I doubt it was and without any specific news item to pinpoint as the driver, I’m chalking these impressive moves up to general market sentiment on the day.
* Perhaps most worthy of a spot on the Harry Hindsight Highlight Reel, was a statement released from ECB’s Draghi, saying real interest rate spreads between the Eurozone and rest of the world would probably fall, putting downward pressure on exchange rates. While FGBL remained very calm in light of release, 6E jerked lower repeatedly – although the move was far from clean and I expect money was lost by some Shorters too!
* By the time the results of a $13bn US 30Year bond auction came out (at 17:00 London time), the Treasury market had already moved far enough for one afternoon session and neither the Longs nor the Shorts had enough reason to shift price.
All in all an interesting afternoon session and a good opportunity to snatch some ticks on Draghi’s words.