Despite my lack of video updates lately, rest assured I have been recording my screen. There just hasn’t been any particular news items worth adding to the Harry Hindsight Highlight Reel.
Instead, seeing as it’s the weekend, I thought it would be nice to take a quick look back at the S&P 500 chart, for the last 5 days, making notes of where news contributed to the market action.
Two things to note:
1) The Twitter Rumours regarding a possible emergency Putin Conference caused an obvious stir – but I watched back the replays, and the information came out in dribs and drabs, as you would expect from a social networking source. This was not a classic “free money trade”, despite how it may appear on the chart…
2) I considered drawing up comments on various other charts such as the EUR, TSYS, Oil etc, but I felt the S&P500 nicely captured any key talking points.
Despite recording all the action from the week, there were no specific harry hindsight news plays that I felt warranted a video clip.
As the blog has progressed, I have become more selective about what qualifies as a potential “free money trade”. There have been a handful of key moments over the last several weeks; I’d like to review the biggest of them on a 60 minute chart, to really put them in context.
What I found quite surprising was the lack of higher time-frame “follow-through” in each instance of news. Draghi or Yellen might say something important and dictate the market direction over the following couple of hours, but the very next day – or soon enough anyway – the market retraces the whole move. It makes me wonder just how significant news is in the grand scheme of things?…
S&P500, looking at key news events of the last several weeks.
EUR:USD, looking at key news events of the last several weeks.
I think the award of “Best Play” has to go to Mario Draghi, whose statement on Thurdsay, 13 March, provided a potentially lucrative sell on EUR/USD (6E Futures).
Let’s take another look:
In an age of Machine-readable news, sometimes you have to be prepared to hit the trade button the very instant you see the market jerking in to life, and the Squawk Box microphone clicking on. Waiting to hear the full headline often means you are too late already.